Pandemic Flu H5N1: The Bird Flu Isn’t Just for the Birds

April 20, 2006

For many months now the world has been focused on the ever-growing expansion of the Bird Flu. Initially found in China in 1996, the avian flu has now reached the Middle East, Western Europe and Africa, and it is only a matter of time before it reaches our shores. Experts predict that North America will succumb too when migratory birds via the Pacific Flyway return to their nesting spots sometime this spring. Health Officials are warning of the potential of a Pandemic Flu outbreak similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed millions worldwide during the last year of World War I if the virus mutates enough to jump from birds-to-human contamination to human-to-human contamination. Some experts indicate that it is not a matter of “if” this will occur, but “when” this will occur.

So, why am I, as an association executive, writing to you about this potential health catastrophe? Because if the experts prove to be correct, the avian flu could have a significant impact on your business operations. Why? Well, imagine if over time your workforce was reduced by 33%, because that is what health officials are indicating could be the consequences on your workforce. So, are you prepared to lose one-third of your workers? Can your business operate with one-third of your employees sick and at home? Can your employees perform their work-related duties remotely from their home? Do your computers and your server have the capacity to handle that many employees working from their homes? What happens if another third of your employees do not show up to work because their children are sick or they do not allow them to go to school because of the parents’ fear of contamination, and so they must stay home to tend to their children? Now, considering all of these scenarios, what happens to your business if this occurs for several months, not just a couple of weeks? Is your company prepared to weather this catastrophic event? That’s why I’m writing about this; because while you may be somewhat prepared for hurricanes and temporary electrical shutdowns, the reality of the Pandemic Flu is that we must be at the top of our game.

The Facts

Here are some facts that may help to put this issue of past flu viruses into the proper perspective:

1918 Spanish Flu

40 - 50 million died worldwide
550,000 died in USA
2.5% of those infected, died

1957 Asian Flu

1 – 2 million died worldwide
70,000 died in USA

1968 Hong Kong Flu

700,000 died worldwide
34,000 died in USA

To date, the avian flu has infected almost 200 individuals worldwide and about half have died, for a mortality rate of almost fifty percent (50%)! In a March 15, 2006, story in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, staff reporters Nancy McVicar and Mark Hollis wrote that if the avian flu hit Broward County here are the important numbers to contemplate:

595,000 Broward citizens would become ill

446,250 would seek treatment

59,500 could be hospitalized

29,750 could die

Now, imagine what the consequences would be for the remaining 66 counties in Florida.

Don’t Panic – PREPARE

In an April 12th story in USA Today, Anthony Fauci, the Director of the National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) was quoted as saying, “Organizations like your own should have ways of saying we can’t exist with a cumulative 40% workforce absence, so when people get sick, tell them to go home and do everything from home.” The challenge though for all of us, is that really practical? If it isn’t, then we all need to be better prepared. One way to be better prepared would be for your company to conduct an exercise and see for yourself; if you arbitrarily decided that 33 – 40% of your workforce had to do their work from their home, is that actually possible? Does your current management information system (MIS) have the capacity to allow that many employees to receive and then transmit their work product via the internet? If so, then you are indeed in very good shape, but for most of us, we will probably determine that we do not have the infrastructure to accomplish this feat. So, the next step is to contact your MIS consultant and determine what needs to be done in order to insure that your business will survive. Because, unlike a hurricane where you may be without electricity for a few days or even a couple of weeks, in a pandemic flu where repeated waves of the virus will sweep the country, you have to consider that your employees may have to be quarantined or too sick to show up, or more likely too scared to come to work for fear of contamination from other employees, for literally a couple of months!

In fact, in a recent study conducted in Maryland and reported in USA Today in the past few days, nearly half of the public health work force would stay at home if there was a pandemic flu, including a majority of clerical and technical support staff, which would obviously have a significant impact on the delivery of health care. Moreover, two-thirds (66%) of the public health employees felt like “they would put themselves at risk if they reported to work in a pandemic.” Now you have the potential of most of your healthy employees not showing up because they don’t want to risk infection!

But this doesn’t have to be the case. In fact, there are three scenarios that can occur: (1) the virus could continue to spread among birds without ever infecting humans; (2) the virus could mutate into a more harmless virus, one that might not even be dangerous to other birds; or (3) it could become a deadly virus to humans. Therefore, the best plan of action is to be prepared and not panic. In all likelihood, other parts of the country may become hit before Florida, but nevertheless, being prepared will not only help you, your business, your employees and your customers or clients, but it will also help you to be prepared for the onslaught of the coming hurricane season.

HELP! Where Do I Turn?

So, where can you go to get help? Dr. Rony Francois, Secretary of the Florida Department of Health has information on their governmental website that shares with you what Florida is doing as a state to be prepared in case the worst happens. Their website is: www.doh.state.fl.us and it is the official Pandemic Influenza Action Plan Website for the state. At the national level, the federal Pandemic Flu website is: ww.pandemicflu.gov. On this site, you can dig deeper and find a Business Planning Checklist that will help you prepare your business in a step-by-step fashion; the specific address is: www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/businesschecklist.html, and you can download the various checklists in order to conduct your own review. There is also another federal website at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention; their address is: www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.html, and many of your frequently asked questions can be answered there.

Is it possible that this threat of a pandemic flu is like the scare we all had back in 1976 with the swine flu, which ultimately fizzled out? Yes, but if that is not the case, then we all must be prepared to initiate emergency plans to insure that we will be able to run our businesses. If it occurs, circumstances will be difficult. It just won’t be your employees that will be impacted. Imagine one-third of all First Responders becoming infected, or hospital workers, or airline pilots, or postal workers, or transit drivers. It literally will touch everyone in one way or another. Hopefully, it will not come to that; but to be forewarned, is to be prepared.

516 North Adams Street ● Post Office Box 784 ● Tallahassee, Florida 32302-0784 ● Phone: (850) 224-7173 ● Fax: (850) 224-6532 ● www.aif.com