August 4, 2010
TALLAHASSEE – Additional 2010 election poll results released today by Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) show Republican Rick Scott holding a single-digit lead over his gubernatorial primary opponent Attorney General Bill McCollum. In a telephone survey conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, likely Republican voters were asked for whom they planned to vote in the primary. Of those polled, 41 percent said they planned to vote for Scott, 34 percent for McCollum and nearly a quarter (24 percent) were undecided. While 59 percent of likely Republican primary voters indicated they had definitively decided they would be voting for either McCollum or Scott, 37 percent said they might change their minds.
“This is an unprecedented election cycle and, just like everyone else, Associated Industries of Florida and our business members are keeping a close watch on the high-profile races for Governor and all the open Cabinet seats,” said Barney Bishop III, president and CEO of AIF. “With so many voters still undecided at this point, it is almost impossible to prognosticate the outcomes of what appear to be close statewide races. Undecideds and those who have indicated they could change their minds hold the key to this election.”
If the general election were held today and McCollum was the Republican nominee for Governor, poll results show McCollum leading Democrat Alex Sink by a slight, 2 percentage-point lead with 30 percent of respondents choosing McCollum and 29 percent for Sink. Only 15 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for independent candidate Lawton “Bud” Chiles III and another 27 percent remain undecided. If Scott was the Republican nominee for Governor, his lead over Sink narrows to 1 percentage point with 32 percent of respondents supporting Scott and 31 percent supporting Sink. In this scenario, Chiles receives 14 percent of the vote and 23 percent are undecided.
“AIF’s PAC recently endorsed General McCollum and Rick Scott in the Governor’s race because both candidates’ overall philosophies align with ours and each would be a Governor who would serve as a champion for Florida’s business community. While the Republican primary might be tightening a bit, it’s clear either candidate will be engaged in a close general election battle for the Governor’s mansion with Alex Sink,” added Bishop.
The Republican primary for Attorney General remains wide open with an overwhelming majority – 69 percent – of likely Republican voters undecided. Among decided Republican voters, the three Republican candidates are close with 12 percent supporting Lt. Governor Jeff Kottkamp, 10 percent supporting Pam Bondi and 9 percent supporting Holly Benson.
Similarities exist in the Attorney General Democratic primary with 62 percent undecided and Democratic candidates Sen. Dave Aronberg and Sen. Dan Gelber close with 20 percent and 18 percent of likely Democratic voter support respectively.
Conducted by McLaughlin & Associates between July 31 and August 1, 2010, the poll surveyed by telephone 600 randomly-selected, likely general election voters throughout Florida. It has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent and a 95 percent confidence interval. Questions regarding the gubernatorial and Attorney General Republican primaries were posed to 209 randomly-selected likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.8 percent. Questions regarding the Attorney General Democratic primary were posed to 238 randomly-selected likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 6.4 percent.