August 6, 2010
The below analysis by Jim McLaughlin, President and Partner of McLaughlin & Associates, discusses a recent poll conducted by his organization for Associated Industries of Florida released earlier this week. As the general election approaches, McLaughlin’s analysis discusses the possibility of Governor Charlie Crist placing third in the U.S. Senate Race behind the Democratic and Republican challengers.
According to our pollsters, it is entirely possible that Governor Crist may very well come in third place in this critical race. Not only because of the reasons cited in the below analysis, but because independent voters have the least motivation to go to the polls on election day. There is simply no proven Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort for independents. As a former executive director of the Florida Democratic Party, I know the Democrats have a good GOTV effort. From experience, I also know the Republicans have a very good ground game along with robust absentee and early voter programs that consistently produce favorable results. We believe independent voters will not go to the polls at the high numbers that have been displayed in recent polls, not just ours. Thus, Democratic and Republican voters will ultimately come home leaving the Governor in a potential third place finish.
Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist are running neck and neck in a recent Florida statewide survey among 600 likely voters; however, the crosstabs indicate Marco Rubio is in a better position to win in November.
In a race with Democrat Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist are virtually tied (38% Crist, 36% Rubio and 16% Meek) with 10% undecided. If Jeff Greene were the Democratic nominee, Rubio and Crist are running even (37% Rubio, 37% Crist and 16% Greene) with 10% undecided. Currently, Charlie Crist is over-performing among partisan voter segments. Once the Democrats have a nominee and the race comes into focus in the fall, his vote among these groups will decline and Marco Rubio will benefit.
Methodology: This poll of 600 likely general election voters in Florida was conducted between July 31 and August 1, 2010. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a general election. The poll of 600 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.
Jim McLaughlin is available for comments and questions and he can be reached at 845-365- 2000.