For Immediate Release
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Contact
Sarah Bascom, sarah@bascomllc.com
Kristen Grissom, kgrissom@bascomllc.com
Tallahassee, Fla.—Today, the Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) Center for Political Strategy released the initial findings from its first 2024 Statewide General Election Poll.
Inflation/lowering the cost of living (23%) and fixing the insurance crisis (21%) were statistically tied within the margin of error as the most important issue currently facing the state followed by combatting illegal immigration (14%), lowering housing costs (10%), and safeguarding access to abortion (10%) as the only other issues to break double digits.
Florida voters prefer a generic Republican candidate over a generic Democrat candidate by a 46%-40% margin, with 14% of the electorate undecided. Although Republicans edge out Democrats on a generic ballot, Independents show a preference towards a generic Democrat candidate over a generic Republican candidate by a 39%-28% margin.
Democrats self-identify as less liberal and more moderate, whereas Republicans claim a notably stronger degree of conservatism. 37% of Republicans identify as “very conservative,” while only 22% of Democrats identify as “very liberal.” 19% of Republicans identify as “moderate” compared to 34% of Democrats who identify as “moderate.”
“We’re seeing an interesting trend throughout the state where Independent voters are skewing more Democratic than Republican,” said AIF Vice President of Political Operations Jeremy Sheftel. “As election season gets closer, it will be important to monitor this trend to gauge which way Independents will break come Election Day.”
Republicans perform better than Democrats on a majority of issues facing the state, including crime (39%-15%), education (35%-28%), and the economy (44%-22%). However, on the issue of healthcare, voters side with Democrats over Republicans (37%-18%). A majority of voters (55%) believe neither party is doing an effective job lowering property insurance costs, and a plurality of voters (34%) say neither party is doing an effective job reducing inflation/everyday costs.
As of November 30, 2023, the current statewide voter registration shows 13,541,633 total registered voters in Florida. Republicans lead with 5,159,681 (38%) followed by Democrats with 4,460,829 (33%) and Independents with 3,921,123 (29%).
In 2023, more Hispanic voters registered as Republican (32%) compared to Democrat (25%); however, a plurality (43%) registered as Independent. Further, Republicans also out-registered their Democratic counterparts across all age brackets and media markets with the biggest margin coming in the 55-64 age bracket and the Tampa media market.
For additional information on AIF’s Center for Political Strategy, visit aif.com/political.
METHODOLOGY: The AIF Center for Political Strategy poll was conducted by National Public Affairs. The sample size for the survey is 988 registered likely general election voters in Florida. Interviews were collected via landlines and SMS/text messaging to web. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%. Interviews were conducted January 2 - 6, 2024. Percentages may not equal 100% due to rounding.
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