For Immediate Release
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Contact
Sarah Bascom, sarah@bascomllc.com
Kristen Grissom, kgrissom@bascomllc.com
Tallahassee, Fla. – The Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) Center for Political Strategy today released the initial findings from its Q3 2024 Statewide General Election Poll which will be presented in detail at the Q3 AIF Political Council briefing.
The AIF Center for Political Strategy poll shows former President Donald J. Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 52-44-3% in a 3-way race. Trump maintains a similar lead over Harris in a head-to-head matchup where he leads Harris by 7 points, 53-46%.
In the race for U.S. Senate, Senator Rick Scott leads former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 10-points (52-42%) with 7% of voters undecided.
Economic kitchen table issues remain top of mind for Florida voters. Inflation (27%) and property insurance costs (22%) are the most important issues currently facing Floridians followed by illegal immigration (10%) as the only other issue to break double digits.
A near majority of Florida voters (49%) hold a positive view of the direction of the state compared to 45% of voters who view the state heading in the wrong direction. Voters prefer a generic Republican candidate over a generic Democratic candidate by a 50-42% margin, which is double the margin from our Q2 statewide poll in May.
Republicans perform better than Democrats on a majority of issues facing the state, including the economy (49-26%), reducing inflation/everyday costs (43-25%), crime (50-22%), education (41-37%), and protecting personal freedoms (47-40%). A plurality of voters (36%) believes neither party is doing an effective job lowering property insurance costs – one of the top issues in the state.
“President Trump won Florida by three points in 2020, and, with less than three months to go until Election Day, he appears to be in a very strong position to grow his margin and win Florida for the third time in 2024,” said AIF Vice President of Political Operations Jeremy Sheftel.
As of August 2024, Republicans have a raw voter registration advantage of 1,000,024 over Democrats in the state of Florida. The current statewide voter registration shows Republicans lead with roughly 5,330,000 active registered voters (39%) followed by Democrats with 4,330,000 (32%) and Independents with 3,920,000 (29%).
The AIF Center for Political Strategy has been closely monitoring Florida electoral trends through regular statewide polling, strategic legislative district polling, and focus groups throughout the state. For additional information on AIF’s Center for Political Strategy, visit aif.com/political.
METHODOLOGY: The AIF Center for Political Strategy poll was conducted by McLaughlin & Associates. The sample size for the survey is 800 registered likely general election voters in Florida. Interviews were collected via landlines, cell phones, and SMS/text messaging to web. The margin of error is +/- 3.4% at a 95% confidence interval. Interviews were conducted August 6th-8th, 2024. Percentages may not equal 100% due to rounding.
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